US Weekly Recap: Dow +1.74%, S&P +0.94%, Nasdaq +0.81%, Russell 2000 +3.07%
Friday, August 15, 2025 (GMT)

Underperformers: Utilities (0.83%), Consumer Spls. (0.77%), Industrials (0.25%), Tech (0.14%), Real Estate +0.15%, Energy +0.46%

Overview:

US equities were higher again this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing just below the record highs they hit earlier in the week. The Russell 2000 logged another strong week; retail-investor favorites and most-shorted names also fared well. Big tech was mostly higher, with AMZN +% the notable Mag 7 gainer. Other outperformers included managed care (UNH +21.2%), media, airlines, chemicals, pharma/biotech, homebuilders, and credit cards. Laggards included communications/networking, ag machinery, grocers/staples retailers, containerboard, A&D, utilities, REITs, exchanges, and semicaps.

Treasuries were unchanged to higher at the long end of the curve; the 2/10 spread hit its steepest point since May. The dollar was weaker again this week, declining on the major crosses; DXY (0.3%). Gold was lower, dropping 3.1%. WTI crude settled down 1.7% for the week.

What happened?:

It was relatively quiet on the trade front. As widely expected, the White House announced another 90-day extension of China’s tariff deadline, shifting it to early November. In Friday comments from Air Force One, Trump said that long-promised semiconductor tariffs could be announced in the coming two weeks, suggesting that chip imports could ultimately be subject to a 300% tariff (he made no mention of pharma tariff plans). Followed last weekend’s report that NVDA and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15% of China sales of certain AI chips in exchange for export licenses. Meanwhile, negotiations continue with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying deals with “substantial” trading partners may be wrapped up by October, though he added India talks have been challenging.

Economic data and Fed rate-cut prospects remained intertwined. July CPI was expected to be the centerpiece of the week; both headline and core measures printed in line with consensus, though takeaways flagged limited but evident tariff impacts to certain categories. In contrast, July PPI came in much hotter than expected, driven largely by services prices (including trade services). However, analysts expect limited pass-through to July core PCE and suggested August payrolls may carry more weight in Fed decisionmaking. The July retail sales report was largely in line in showing a continued consumer impulse, and June’s data was revised higher. August’s NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey beat expectations, though respondent optimism waned. Preliminary August UMich consumer sentiment dropped for the first time in four months while year-ahead and five-year inflation expectations rose. Both July import and export prices came in above consensus.

With market pricing showing a strong conviction around a 25bp September rate cut, the week’s Fedspeak dealt with the rate path forward and the possibility for an oversized move next month. However, there was little genuinely new and speakers largely stuck to their previous stances. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed could consider a 50bp cut in September, but later walked that back, suggesting a smaller 25bp cut to start followed by some acceleration. SF’s Daly said while she sees lower rates ahead, a 50bp cut in September would send an unwarranted signal of urgency. There was also focus on the race for Trump’s Fed chair appointment next year; while Governor Waller still seems to be a favorite, some private-sector names appear to be in the mix including Jefferies’ David Zervos and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.

Overall, the path of least resistance appeared to remain tilted to the upside. Conviction around a September Fed rate cut remains high, and there are some expectations for Chair Powell to shift to a more dovish tone in his address next week. While the market continues to watch for signs of labor-market weakening, there still remains limited signs of tariff-based pressure on inflation (the week’s sharp PPI reading is expected to only marginally feed through to core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure). Despite a couple of disappointments (and a raft of retailer reports next week), the Q2 earnings season has been better than expected. Nevertheless, many companies have moderated guidance on macro headwinds and tariff impacts, and trade headlines remain volatile. And at the same time, concern about possibly resurgent inflation has been cited in consumer surveys.

Corporate highlights:

Among the week’s notable gainers, OPEN +62.6% rallied across the week, culminating in Friday’s CEO departure. PSKY +30.5% announced a seven-year deal to be the exclusive distributor of UFC marquee events. RDNT +26.4% beat and raised amid better procedural volumes. MRCY +26.3% beat on most key metrics with management positive on the demand backdrop and margin expansion. Trump met and praised INTC +23.1% CEO Tan after last week calling for his resignation. UNH +21.2% rallied after news Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway took a 5M-share stake.

To the downside, CART (14.2%) and other grocery retailers were hit by news AMZN will expand its grocery delivery service. CAVA (17.8%) logged a big miss on comps and lowered FY comp guidance. AI (19.3%) issued a negative preannouncement, flagging disruptions from its recently completed reorganization. COHR (19.1%) sequential datacenter growth underwhelmed against elevated expectations. CRWV (22.8%) dropped ahead of post-IPO lockup expiration. MNDY (29.2%) earnings takeaways skewed positive, though expectations were high and the beat underwhelmed.

There were a few M&A headlines as well. SPNS +61.0% will be acquired by private-equity firm Advent for ~$2.5B. TGNA +34.0% rose on reports it could be acquired by NXST +10.5%. HBI +32.9% confirmed it will be acquired by Canada’s GIL +9.3%. Bloomberg reported HI +27.6% is exploring options, including a potential sale.

Coming next week:

Next week will be fairly light in terms of economic releases, seeing NAHB homebuilder sentiment (Monday); housing starts (Tuesday); and jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing, flash PMIs, and existing home sales (Thursday).

The big item on the Fed calendar is Chair Powell’s scheduled address at the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium on Friday 22-Aug. Other scheduled Fedspeak includes remarks Tuesday from Fed Vice Chair Bowman and Wednesday from Governor Waller (both reportedly in the running for Fed chair). Atlanta Fed President Bostic will deliver remarks both Wednesday and Thursday. Finally, the Fed on Wednesday will release the minutes from July’s FOMC meeting, though these are generally seen as stale given intervening payroll and inflation reports.

Though more than 90% of S&P constituents have already reported for Q2, next week brings a late burst of several large companies, particularly retailers including WMT, HD, TJX, LOW, ROST, and TGT. Other bigger names of note will include INTU, MDT, ADI, PANW, EL, and KEYS.

S&P 500 Sector Performance:

Outperformers: Healthcare +4.62%, Consumer Disc. +2.50%, Communication Svcs. +2.13%, Materials +1.76%, Financials +1.16%

Underperformers: Utilities (0.83%), Consumer Spls. (0.77%), Industrials (0.25%), Tech (0.14%), Real Estate +0.15%, Energy +0.46%

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